Potash
About Potash
Supply & Demand
Demand Drivers
Demand Drivers
Short-Term Demand Drivers

  • Grain prices
  • Grain inventories
  • Weather
  • Crop yields
  • Crop mix
  • Planting intentions
  • Fertilizer inventories
  • Shipping rates
  • Exchange rates
  • Current economic conditions
  • Dumping
  • Feedstock costs
  • Availability of credit

Mid-Term Demand Drivers

  • New capacity announcements
  • Plant shutdowns and mine closures
  • Current economic conditions
  • Changing tax regimes and government policies
  • Energy price changes
  • Shrinking agricultural land base
  • Adoption of genetically modified seeds
  • Irrigation improvements
  • Political unrest
  • Cash costs of swing producers
  • Permanent capacity utilization rate changes
  • Farmer income, subsidies, protection, and financing

Long-Term Demand Drivers

  • Global population growth – could increase by 40%+ by 2050
  • Arable land per capita is shrinking fast
  • Global meat consumption per capita is increasing
    • One tonne of poultry requires feed corresponding to 2 tonnes of grain;
    • One tonne of pork requires feed corresponding to 4 tonnes of grain; and
    • One tonne of beef requires feed corresponding to 7 tonnes of grain.
  • Global GDP growth should get back on track – higher disposable incomes lead to a demand increase for higher-protein diets, including the consumption of more meat, and higher-quality fruits and vegetables
  • Adoption and growth of biofuels markets

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